Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 44.287035 52.322675 61.176142 71.623507 83.582154 96.809797 112.513913
2024-10-13 31.146379 41.409212 53.868218 69.973494 90.092884 114.238601 145.232437
2024-10-20 26.804925 38.890855 54.638019 76.358057 105.191256 141.766953 191.222446
2024-10-27 20.403913 32.132187 48.447649 72.317836 105.769618 150.317436 213.319861
2024-11-03 17.723235 29.879438 47.725832 75.110412 115.178387 170.610966 251.784422
2024-11-10 15.926228 28.539059 47.960960 79.030530 126.212645 193.643824 295.331343
2024-11-17 14.312698 27.163815 47.853380 82.244992 136.270048 215.775214 338.857719
2024-11-24 12.425868 24.988831 46.134346 82.640256 141.913349 231.646740 374.103785
2024-12-01 10.393836 22.194929 42.985918 80.284703 142.885942 240.361546 398.996414
2024-12-08 9.123288 20.572577 41.589430 80.602910 148.019972 255.601824 434.485333
2024-12-15 8.162626 19.379129 40.776694 81.774714 154.545344 273.296835 474.631736
2024-12-22 6.625878 16.735619 36.926830 77.083897 150.625534 273.782016 487.307534
2024-12-29 5.922588 15.869087 36.613076 79.330830 159.854029 297.937290 542.263158
2025-01-05 4.899899 14.090924 34.268115 77.546389 161.900761 310.545567 579.732311
2025-01-12 4.767973 14.394607 36.278851 84.523663 180.679053 353.198676 670.424610
2025-01-19 3.792576 12.353125 32.892572 80.110614 177.450612 356.885389 694.428885
2025-01-26 3.466912 11.939512 33.079589 83.161353 188.910049 387.597429 767.368142
2025-02-02 3.247730 11.770816 33.806629 87.441613 203.143408 424.240465 852.840850
2025-02-09 3.005108 11.474904 34.175686 90.949535 216.062526 459.184167 937.072922
2025-02-16 2.640821 10.710778 33.249788 91.380772 222.595191 482.396412 1001.028334
2025-02-23 2.201757 9.575146 31.162216 88.810477 222.483882 492.736149 1041.553017
2025-03-02 1.937167 8.951280 30.335314 89.157744 228.684182 515.746091 1107.084067
2025-03-09 1.737057 8.499104 29.908783 90.436424 237.028422 543.477602 1182.995092